Spot Rates Are Up 23%. The Carriers That Disappeared in 2024 Aren’t Coming Back.

If you finalized your 2026 transportation budget any time before March, there's a good chance it's already wrong.

The freight market didn't just shift in the last 90 days. It inverted. Spot rates have surged, contract rates are starting to follow, and the structural capacity that disappeared during the 2024 freight recession isn't coming back the way most planners assumed it would. For shippers, brands, and ecommerce operators who built their 2026 logistics budgets against the soft rate environment of 2023 and 2024, the next two quarters are going to be uncomfortable.

Here's what's actually happening, why it matters, and what to do about it before your Q3 invoices land on the CFO's desk.

What changed in 90 days

A few data points tell the story:

National average truckload spot rates climbed to roughly $2.80 per mile all-in in early Q2 2026. A 23% increase from the lows of Q4 2025. During DOT inspection week in mid-May, week-over-week spot rate increases hit their highest level in four years. Reefer spot linehaul rates are up 26% year-over-year.

The most telling indicator is the Logistics Managers' Index. The LMI Transportation Prices component hit 95.0, the second-highest reading in the index's history. At the same time, LMI Capacity fell to 28.4, the second-lowest reading ever recorded. The 66-point spread between the two is the widest the index has ever measured.

That spread isn't noise. It's the signature of a market where demand is firm and supply has been structurally reduced.

Why this happened (and why the old playbook won't work)

Three forces converged to create this market, and none of them are about to reverse.

First, carrier attrition was deeper than the headlines suggested. Two-plus years of below-cost rates pushed thousands of small carriers out of the market in 2024 and 2025. These weren't fleets going dormant and waiting for better days. They were trucks being sold, drivers leaving the industry, and authority being revoked. Capacity that exits this way doesn't snap back in 90 days when rates improve. It has to be rebuilt, and rebuilding takes years.

Second, demand didn't soften the way analysts forecast. The consumer recession that was supposed to arrive in late 2025 didn't. Retail freight volumes have held up, ecommerce fulfillment demand continues to grow, and tariff-driven inventory pre-positioning has added to domestic freight demand as importers move goods earlier and stage more inventory closer to consumers.

Third, the end of the de minimis exemption pulled forward a wave of US warehousing and domestic freight demand. When Shein, Temu, and other cross-border platforms pivoted to US-based fulfillment in 2025, the inventory that used to ship direct-to-consumer from overseas now lands in US ports and moves through US trucks and drayage networks. That's net new domestic freight on a network that's already tight.

Put those three forces together, and you get the market we have now: not a cyclical tightening, but a structural reset.

What this means for your 2026 logistics budget

If you're a shipper, brand operator, or ecommerce founder, three things follow.

Your Q3 transportation invoices are going to be 15–25% higher than your forecast. Have that conversation with finance now, in May. Not in August when invoices start arriving. The longer the variance goes undiscussed, the more it looks like an operations failure rather than a market reality. Bring the LMI data, bring the DAT trendlines, and frame it as a strategic update, not bad news. (For practical tactics, our guide to reducing shipping costs after carrier rate increases walks through where the biggest savings actually live.)

Contract rates are about to follow spot. There's typically a 60–90 day lag between spot market movements and contract rate adjustments. The carriers that absorbed unprofitable contract work in 2024 and 2025 are not going to do it again. If you have contracts up for renewal or RFPs in the pipeline, expect bids to come in materially higher than your last cycle. And expect carriers to be more selective about which lanes they'll commit to.

The accessorial bill is going to grow. When capacity is tight, carriers re-price the things that used to be "just part of the service". Detention, lumper, layover, after-hours pickups, weekend deliveries. Audit your accessorial spend now and identify which behaviors are driving it. This is exactly the kind of cost that transparent 3PL billing exposes. And that opaque billing buries.

Three hedges that actually work in this market

There are no magic bullets, but there are three plays that consistently work when the freight market tightens.

1. Diversify your contract carrier base, and do it before peak.

Single-source carrier strategies look efficient in a soft market and become liabilities in a tight one. Build relationships with two or three additional asset-based carriers per lane now, while they still have appetite to take on new business. By the time peak hits in September, the good carriers will be full.

2. Mode-shift where the math allows.

For freight that can tolerate an extra day or two, the savings are real. Run the analysis on your top 20 lanes. Most shippers find at least three or four where shifting from full truckload to LTL or consolidating small parcel shipments beats their current mode on landed cost in this market.

3. Lengthen your planning horizon.

The shippers who get hurt worst in tight markets are the ones operating on 14-day inventory positions. When freight is volatile, inventory becomes a hedge. Carrying an extra week of safety stock at your most critical SKUs. In scalable warehouse storage rather than your own DC. Costs less than the expedite fees and lost sales of stocking out during a capacity crunch.

The takeaway

The freight market just changed. The carriers that disappeared in 2024 aren't coming back, demand has been stickier than anyone expected, and the structural capacity reset means higher rates and tighter service standards are the new normal. Not a temporary spike.

The shippers who recognized this in February have already locked contracts, diversified their carrier base, and started the budget conversation with finance. The ones still operating on 2024 assumptions are about to learn the hard way.

If you'd like a second set of eyes on your transportation budget, your carrier mix, or your peak season plan, that's a conversation we have every day with the brands we work with. Book a call with our team or run an instant quote to see what your freight should actually cost in this market.

New to logistics terminology? Our 3PL Dictionary breaks down accessorials, drayage, LMI, and the other terms in this post. For more market commentary, visit the 3PL Center blog.